According to scientists, the 1.5 °C global warming threshold has already been surpassed.

Omissions

• The Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C threshold is defined on long-term (typically 20-year) average warming; a single year — or even a three-year average — above 1.5 °C does not by itself mean the treaty's limit has been breached, as Copernicus and WMO explicitly note.
• 2025 itself was 1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels (below 1.5 °C); it is the 2023–2025 three-year average, not 2025 alone, that exceeded 1.5 °C.
• The figure depends on the dataset: Copernicus/ERA5 reports 1.60 °C for 2024, while WMO's multi-dataset figure is 1.55 °C; both agree the year exceeded 1.5 °C.
• Sources confirming the exceedance were published in January 2025 and January 2026, i.e. before the 14 September 2026 session date, so the MEP could have known them.

Sources

• PrimaryCopernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF) — 2024 first year to exceed 1.5°C2024 was the warmest year in global temperature records going back to 1850. 2024 is the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
• PrimaryCopernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF) — 2025 was the third hottest year on recordGlobal temperatures from the past three years (2023-2025) averaged more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level (1850–1900). ... In 2025, according to ERA5, the global surface air temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level, following 1.60°C in 2024, the warmest year on record.
• PrimaryWorld Meteorological Organization — State of the Global Climate 2025WMO's State of the Global Climate report 2025 confirms that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third [warmest year on record].
• SecondaryUnited Nations — 1.5°C: what it means and why it mattersThe year 2024 was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record, with a global mean near-surface temperature 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 average.