Illegal arrivals into the European Union have already been halved following a strengthened migration and returns policy.

Omissions

• The halving is only true when measured against the 2023 peak; the year-on-year decline in 2025 relative to 2024 was 26%, not 50%.
• The claim attributes the reduction to a 'strengthened migration and returns policy', but Frontex presents the figures as data only and does not attribute the fall to EU policy; the agency also warns that migration pressure remains volatile and that Europe must stay prepared for sudden changes.
• Frontex notes that while overall numbers fell, certain routes (e.g. the Central Mediterranean, which remained the most active) did not decline proportionally, so the aggregate figure masks route-level variation.

Sources

• PrimaryFrontex — news release 'Irregular border crossings down 26% in 2025, Europe must stay prepared'Initial consolidated figures from Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, show detections of irregular border crossings at the EU's external borders fell by over one-quarter (26%) in 2025 to almost 178 000. This is less than half the total recorded in 2023 and the lowest level since 2021.
• PrimaryFrontex — InBrief 2025In 2025, the number of irregular border crossings at the European Union's external borders reached a total of just over 178 000. This number marks a 26% decrease compared to the figures in 2024 and the lowest level since 2021.
• SecondaryInfoMigrants — 'Frontex: Irregular border crossings into EU drop by 25 percent in 2025'The EU border agency Frontex recorded just under 178,000 irregular entries at the EU's external borders last year -- the lowest annual total since 2021. However, certain migration routes were used more frequently in 2025, according to the Warsaw-based agency.