Illegal border crossings into the EU are down 56% over the last two years and by a further 34% so far this year.
70% confidence
MigrationEuropean Union
Omissions
Frontex's own headline for the latest data is 'down 1/3 in the first nine months of 2026' (33%, not 34%); the difference is simple rounding.
The exact '56% over the last two years' figure does not appear verbatim in the Frontex releases located; it is consistent with the successive annual declines reported by Frontex (26% in 2025 after a large fall in 2024), which imply a cumulative two-year reduction of roughly 50–56%.
The 'so far this year' figure refers to the first nine months of 2026 (January–September), not the full year, and is preliminary Frontex data.
Absolute volumes remain non-trivial (tens of thousands of detections), so a percentage decline describes a trend rather than the disappearance of irregular crossings.