Implementation of the Paris Agreement's nationally determined pledges lowered projected end-of-century warming from about 3.5 °C to between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C.
86% confidence
EnvironmentInternational
Omissions
UNEP's pre-Paris baseline is given as a range of 3–3.5°C, not a point value of 3.5°C; the speaker quotes the top of that range, which slightly inflates the improvement achieved.
The 2.3–2.5°C projection presupposes full implementation of all NDCs, including those with 2035 targets; UNEP's current-policies projection is 2.8°C, i.e. the trajectory remains far above the Paris temperature goals.
Other independent trackers give somewhat different numbers: Climate Action Tracker puts the Paris-era improvement at 3.6°C → 2.6°C for its main scenario, indicating the figures are methodology-dependent.
The claim frames the outcome as the Paris Agreement 'successfully' altering the trajectory without noting that the world is still on track to overshoot 1.5°C substantially, which UNEP stresses in the same report.
Sources
PrimaryUNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2025"Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C."
PrimaryUNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2025 (full text, UNEP Documents Repository)Warming projections based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) "are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year's report."