Ralf Seekatz· PPE

Nuanced

Inflation expectations remain above the target value.

Omissions

• The MEP did not specify which measure of inflation expectations was being referenced. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey showed 2.8% for December 2025 (data available before the session date), while the Survey of Professional Forecasters indicated 1.8% average inflation for 2026, below the 2% target. Different inflation expectations measures showed conflicting signals.

Sources

• PrimaryECB Consumer Expectations Survey - January 2026Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months at 2.6% in January 2026 (down from 2.8% in December 2025)
• PrimaryECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q1 2026Headline inflation expected to decrease to 1.8% in 2026, returning to 2.0% in 2027