Long-haul flights, which are excluded from the ETS, account for almost 200 Mt CO2.

Error detected

The stated magnitude of 'almost 200 Mt' is substantially higher than the actual emissions from long-haul flights excluded from the EU ETS, which evidence suggests fall in the range of 80–130 Mt CO₂ per year. The claim overestimates by approximately 50–150%.

Omissions

• No primary official source (EEA, Eurostat, or European Commission) with an exact figure for extra-EEA aviation CO₂ emissions could be located within the search limits.
• Only secondary sources were available to verify the claim; the Opportunity Green study (June 2025) referenced by InfluenceMap suggests extra-EEA emissions of approximately 85 Mt/year on average over the ETS programme period, far below 200 Mt.
• The MEP did not specify whether the figure is annual, cumulative, or covers both departing and arriving long-haul flights, which affects interpretation.
• Data from 2025 or 2026 could not be located; the most recent available data point found was 2023 (164.5 Mt total European aviation emissions, per a secondary source).

Sources

• SecondaryHomaioIn 2023, the EU ETS captured 22% of aviation emissions from European flights, totaling 164.5 megatonnes of CO₂. This implies total European aviation CO₂ was 164.5 Mt, of which approximately 128 Mt (78%) was uncovered by the ETS.
• SecondaryInfluenceMapA June 2025 study by Opportunity Green estimated that, had the EU ETS scope covered extra-EEA flights, 1.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions would have been covered cumulatively, implying an annual average of approximately 85 Mt.