More than half of Burkina Faso's territory is beyond state control.
Foreign AffairsBurkina Faso
- Error detected
- The claim states 'more than half' of Burkina Faso's territory is beyond state control. The most rigorous independent source, the BTI 2026 Country Report, places armed-group control at 29.41% at end of 2024 — well below half. The figure is overstated by approximately 20 percentage points.
- Omissions
- The BTI Project figure of 29.41% armed-group control dates from end of 2024, roughly 18 months before the speech; more recent independent data for mid-2026 was not available.
- There is a significant divergence in assessments: the African Security Analysis group estimated 'approximately 60%' of territory outside government control by 2025, though this contradicts both the BTI's methodologically rigorous assessment and the government's own figures.
- Al Jazeera reported in May 2024 that 'about half' of territory remained outside government control, suggesting the situation was worse two years earlier and has since improved according to the BTI trend (from 60% armed-group control in 2022 to 29.41% by end of 2024).
- Government figures cited by Africanews and APANews are government claims, not independently verified; the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has noted a 'Growing Divergence of Security Narratives' suggesting official figures may be inflated.
- The speaker did not cite any source for the claim.
- Sources
- AcademicBTI Project – Bertelsmann Transformation IndexArmed groups controlled 60% of Burkina Faso's territory in 2022, but by the end of 2024, this share had dropped to 29.41%.
- SecondaryAfricanewsThe government stated that the proportion of the national territory under State control increased from 73.56% in December 2025 to 74.53% as of mid-2026, implying approximately 26.44% to 25.47% outside state control.
- SecondaryAPANewsPrime Minister Ouédraogo disclosed that 70.59 percent of the national territory is currently under government control.
- SecondaryAl JazeeraAbout half of Burkina Faso's territory remains outside of government control.