Marieke Ehlers· PfE

Underestimated

Return fails in four out of five cases (80% failure rate)

Omissions

• The speaker did not specify the time period or the exact metric used
• More recent 2025 data shows some variation in return rates across quarters
• The return rate includes both voluntary returns (majority) and enforced returns
• The claim conflates 'return decisions' with actual 'effective returns'

Sources

• PrimaryEurostat - Returns of irregular migrants quarterly statisticsIn Q4 2025, 117,545 non-EU citizens were ordered to leave, and 33,860 were returned to third countries, indicating a return rate of approximately 28.8%
• AcademicESRI - Returning Rejected Asylum SeekersImplementation rates for return decisions in the EU dropped from 36.6% in 2014 to lower levels in subsequent years, with most recent estimates suggesting around 20-30% effectiveness