Shadow tariffs from internal market barriers amount to around 40-60% for goods and more than 100% for services, according to IMF or ECB estimates.

Omissions

• The MEP states a broad range of 'around 40-60%' for goods, whereas the actual IMF estimate is specifically around 44-45% — the range exaggerates the upper bound of uncertainty.
• The primary source is the IMF (December 2024 speech by Alfred Kammer); the ECB's 2025 Economic Bulletin article cites and corroborates the IMF figures rather than producing fully independent original estimates.
• There is academic debate about the methodology behind the IMF's 44-45% estimate: both CEPR/VoxEU and Bocconi IEP have published critiques arguing the figure overstates the true barrier level. The MEP does not acknowledge this controversy.
• These are not actual 'tariffs' but model-based tariff-equivalent estimates of non-tariff barriers (regulatory divergence, standards, administrative costs), which the MEP calls 'shadow tariffs' — a colloquial but not technically precise term.

Sources

• PrimaryIMF — Europe's Choice: Policies for Growth and ResilienceIMF estimates suggest internal EU trade barriers are equivalent to a tariff of about 44% on goods and 110% on services. 'For services, these estimated barriers are even steeper, equivalent to a 110 percent tariff.'
• PrimaryECB Economic Bulletin — What is the untapped potential of the EU Single Market?The ECB cites IMF (2024) estimates of a tariff equivalent of around 110% for services and states that its own analysis 'points to a tariff-equivalent level of barriers of around 115%' for services.
• SecondaryCEPR VoxEU — No, the EU does not impose a 45% tariff on itself'The IMF estimates that the internal barriers within the Single Market are equivalent to a 45% tariff on goods. And a 110% tariff on services.' The article critiques the methodology behind these estimates.