The RSF are threatening an offensive on El-Obeid, putting 500,000 civilians at risk.
92% confidence
Internal AffairsSudan
Omissions
The 500,000 figure is a UN estimate of civilians at risk in and around El Obeid, including more than 100,000 displaced people; it reflects an imminent threat/siege rather than a fully launched ground offensive as of the session date.
The exact publication date of the UN Security Council press release (press.un.org/en/2026/sc16399.doc.htm) could not be confirmed, but its meeting numbering and content place it in 2026, before the session date.
The claim is consistent with multiple independent outlets (Al Jazeera, MSF, Geneva Solutions) reporting the same UN-backed figure.
Sources
PrimaryUN Security Council (press.un.org)Noting that an estimated 500,000 civilians are at risk as fighting intensifies in and around El Obeid, she recalled that a similar situation [led to atrocities in El Fasher].
SecondaryAl JazeeraAt least 29 countries raise alarm about atrocities in Sudan's El Obeid... 500,000 civilians are 'at risk of falling victim to large-scale [atrocities]'.
SecondaryAl JazeeraWhy el-Obeid matters as Sudan's war enters a new phase — How fighting for el-Obeid could shape both Sudan's war and its humanitarian crisis.
SecondaryMédecins Sans Frontières (MSF)Liesbeth Aelbrecht, MSF emergency coordinator who led the team's visit, describes the impact the situation is having on the 500,000 people in [El Obeid].
SecondaryGeneva SolutionsUN rights council to hold emergency debate amid fears of imminent attack on Sudan's El Obeid... 500,000 civilians are at risk of being targeted in large-scale atrocities.