According to the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), the Nature Restoration Regulation could remove nearly €3 billion per year from Finland's economic value added.

Omissions

• Luke's estimate is a range, not a single figure: €1.6–2.9 billion per year for total value added (kokonaisarvonlisäys, including multiplier effects). The MEP cites the upper bound (€2.9 bn ≈ 'nearly €3 bn'), which corresponds to the most ambitious/most extensive restoration scenario; the lower end of the range is about €1.6 billion per year.
• The narrower figure for the forest sector alone (metsäsektorin arvonlisäys) is €1–1.7 billion per year; the larger €1.6–2.9 billion figure applies to total value added across the whole economy once multiplier effects are included.
• Luke's assessment also notes that large additional investments in higher value-added wood products could partially compensate for the losses, context not mentioned in the claim.
• The figure reflects a scenario-based modelling estimate, not an observed outcome; it depends on how extensively restoration obligations are implemented.

Sources

• PrimaryNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)"Kerrannaisvaikutukset huomioon ottaen kokonaisarvonlisäys laskisi 1,6–2,9 miljardia euroa vuodessa. Vastaavasti vuotuinen työllisyys vähenisi metsäsektorilla..." (Taking multiplier effects into account, total value added would fall by €1.6–2.9 billion per year.)
• PrimaryJukuri (Luke research repository) — Kniivilä et al. reportMetsien ennallistamisen vaikutukset hakkuumahdollisuuksiin... (Kniivilä, M. et al., 2026) — Luke research report underlying the estimate of value-added losses from the EU Nature Restoration Regulation.
• SecondaryMetsälehti"Niissä skenaarioissa, joihin sisältyi myös talousmetsien ennallistamista, metsäsektorin arvonlisäys vähenisi 1–1,7 miljardia euroa nykyisestä." and "Ennallistamisasetuksen vaikutuksia arvonlisään ja työllisyyteen voi pitää shokkina, Luonnonvarakeskuksen arvioinnissa todetaan."