The large-scale forest protection scenario under the Nature Restoration Regulation would eliminate more than 20,000 jobs in Finland.
55% confidence
EnvironmentFinland
Omissions
The 20,000 figure is the upper bound ('up to 20,000') of the most extensive protection scenario, not a fixed or certain number of job losses; the claim converts this maximum into 'more than 20,000'.
It is a hypothetical scenario estimate rather than a confirmed outcome of the EU Nature Restoration Regulation; other Luke scenarios/estimates of jobs at risk are lower (e.g. a figure of about 9,000 jobs has also been reported).
The claim conflates a maximal 'large-scale forest protection' scenario with the concrete obligations of the Nature Restoration Regulation.
The figure appears in essentially one independent secondary source (YLE) citing Luke; no primary Luke report text containing the exact 20,000 figure was retrieved within the search budget.
Sources
PrimaryNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) – news releaseEuroopan unionin ennallistamisasetus velvoittaa jäsenvaltiot palauttamaan heikentyneitä ekosysteemejä, vahvistamaan luonnon monimuotoisuutta ja turvaamaan ... (The EU Restoration Regulation obliges Member States to restore degraded ecosystems...). The extent and implementation of forest restoration determine the effects on logging opportunities and the economy.
SecondaryYLE UutisetLuonnonvarakeskuksen skenaarion mukaan laajamittainen suojelu uhkaisi jopa 20 000:ta työpaikkaa. (According to the Natural Resources Institute Finland's scenario, large-scale protection could threaten up to 20,000 jobs.)
SecondaryTekniikka & TalousTuomiopäivän skenaario Suomen taloudelle julki – 9000 työpaikkaa ja 6000 M€ rahaa vuodessa uhattuna, kun uusia ympäristörajoituksia yritetään ... (A 'doomsday scenario' for the Finnish economy: 9,000 jobs and €6,000 million a year at risk from new environmental restrictions.)
SecondaryMetsälehtiEU:n ennallistamisasetus vaatisi Suomessa 2–6 miljoonan hehtaarin ennallistamista, Luonnonvarakeskus (Luke) arvioi tuoreessa selvityksessään... Luke: Ennallistamisasetuksen kustannukset 13–19 miljardia euroa (The EU Restoration Regulation would require the restoration of 2–6 million hectares in Finland; Luke estimates the costs at €13–19 billion.)