According to the United Nations, the world is heading towards a global temperature rise of 2.8 °C.

Omissions

• The 2.8°C figure is the upper end of a projected range: UNEP describes it as 'up to 2.8°C' of warming under current policies (the 2025 edition cited 2.6–2.8°C), whereas the MEP presented 2.8°C as a single point value.
• The projection is conditional: it assumes only currently implemented policies continue and describes warming 'within this century and increasing thereafter', not a fixed end-of-century outcome.
• The headline message of the Emissions Gap Report 2026 is that the world is set to cross 1.5°C of warming within the next few years and that deep, fast cuts could still bring temperatures back down ('The Point of Return'); the 2.8°C figure is the baseline 'current policies' comparison, not the report's central recommendation.
• The attribution is to the United Nations generally; the figure comes specifically from UNEP's Emissions Gap Report, a UN body but not the IPCC or the UNFCCC process.

Sources

• PrimaryUNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2025'...current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year's report. However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement...'
• PrimaryUNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre — Emissions Gap Reports overview'Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a ...'
• PrimaryUNEP press release — 'New UNEP report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5°C' (Emissions Gap Report 2026)'The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the...' — the press release confirming the October 2026 release of the report whose 'current policies' projection is cited by UN News as 2.8°C.
• SecondaryUN News — 'Global warming will breach 1.5°C – but deep, fast cuts can still...' (Emissions Gap Report 2026)'If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter, the report warned.' The article reports on the 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)' (October 2026).