Asylum applications in the EU are down by 19%, and the return rate has almost doubled in five years to over 30%.
55% confidence
MigrationEuropean Union
Omissions
The 19% fall refers to the EUAA's 'EU+' scope (EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland) and to total applications in 2025; for the EU-27 alone Eurostat reports first-time applicants down 27% in 2025, so the 19% is a narrower/aggregate-scope figure presented as if it were the EU figure.
The 19% figure is a 2025 annual figure, whereas at the session date (October 2026) the most recent EUAA data showed a further 17% fall in asylum applications in the first half of 2026, so the 'present tense' framing understates the actual decline.
On the return rate, Eurostat-based estimates put the EU annual return rate at about 19-20% in 2024/2025; the highest recent official reading is about 29% for Q4 2025 (33,860 returns of 117,545 orders to leave). A rate 'over 30%' would at best require cherry-picking a single exceptional quarter, and academic analysis states the EU return rate has not exceeded 30% since 2020.
The 'almost doubled in five years' comparison depends entirely on the choice of base year (the low-return COVID years around 2020) and on using a quarterly rather than annual measure; no source found documents a doubling to above 30%.
The Commission's own 2025 staff working document accompanying the Returns proposal still describes the return rate as 'too low'.
No source published on or before the session date confirming a return rate above 30% could be located; the sources found are either pre-session official statistics or post-session analytical material.
PrimaryEurostat — Asylum applications, annual statisticsIn 2025, 669 365 first-time asylum applicants (non-EU citizens) applied for international protection in EU countries, down by 27% compared with 2024.