Current national climate pledges still imply global warming of well over 2°C.

Omissions

• The 2.3–2.5°C range is a best-case scenario that assumes full and timely implementation of all submitted NDCs, including conditional targets that depend on international finance and support.
• Only about one third of Parties had submitted new NDCs by 30 September 2025, so the projection is based on incomplete coverage of the Paris Agreement.
• The same UNEP report projects that current policies, rather than pledges, lead to about 2.8°C — a figure that is even further above 2°C, so the MEP's 'well over two degrees' is if anything conservative.
• Climate Action Tracker's separate November 2025 update projects about 2.6°C for current policies and a lower figure if 2030/2035 NDCs plus long-term net-zero targets are all implemented, illustrating that the exact number depends on which pledge scenario is used.
• The first part of the sentence in the speech ('each of the last 10 years ranks among the 10 hottest on record') could not be independently re-verified within the search budget; it corresponds to WMO's global climate statements but no source was retrieved for it here.

Sources

• PrimaryUNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off TargetGlobal warming projections based on current pledges (NDCs) are 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C.
• PrimaryUNEP press release — New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warmingUnder a third of Parties to Paris Agreement submitted new NDCs by 30 September 2025 — Global temperatures now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C, down from 2.6-2.8°C previously projected.
• SecondaryCarbon Brief — UNEP: New country climate plans 'barely move needle' on expected warmingCurrently, the world is on track for 2.3-2.5C of warming this century if all national emissions-cutting plans out to 2035 are implemented in full.
• SecondaryClimate Action Tracker — Global Update, November 2025Warming under governments' policies and climate action – the CAT's 'current policies scenario' – has seen a small 0.1°C drop, from 2.7°C to 2.6°C.