Global grain stockpiles are larger than they were in 2022.

Omissions

• The FAO record-high stocks figure refers to the 2025/26 season; the 2026/27 outlook already shows stocks tightening (USDA projects world wheat ending stocks at 275.0 Mt for 2026/27, 4.2 Mt below 2025/26), so the cushion versus 2022 is shrinking.
• The comparison uses 2022 — a crisis year distorted by the blockade — as the baseline, while the same period saw cereal prices climbing to multi-year highs (FAO Cereal Price Index at 122.8 in September 2026), which the 'better shape' framing omits.
• The precise year-on-year tonnage comparison between 2022 and 2026 global grain stocks was not found published as a single explicit figure in the sources retrieved; the finding rests on FAO's statement that world cereal stocks were set to reach a record high.
• The 20 million tonnes figure refers to grain trapped in Ukrainian ports/silos during the 2022 blockade, not to grain permanently lost from global supply.

Sources

• PrimaryFAO — Food and Agriculture Organization (newsroom)"World cereal production is expected to rise by 4.4 percent in 2025 to reach 2 990 million tonnes, a new record level"; headline: "world cereal stocks set to reach record high" — i.e. cereal stockpiles well above their 2022 level.
• PrimaryConsilium (Council of the EU) — Ukrainian grain exports explained"For over four months, Russian military vessels blocked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. Between July 2022 and July 2023, there was an agreement between the ..."
• AcademicGlauber, J.W. (2023) — 'The Russia-Ukraine grain agreement: What is at stake?' (IFPRI, indexed by FAO AGRIS)"The agreement comes at a time when storage capacity is reaching its limits, with much of the 2022 wheat harvest and the approximately 20 million metric tons of ..." (grain stranded by the Russian blockade).
• SecondaryAHDB — 'Wheat rallied after USDA's first 2026/27 estimates'"The USDA's projected ending stocks for 2026/27 are 4.2 Mt lower than 2025/26, at 275.0 Mt."
• SecondaryEuronews — 'Kallas: Russian Black Sea strikes deepen perfect storm for world food supplies'"Kallas said global grain reserves were in better shape than in 2022, when a Russian blockade left 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain stranded."