According to the IEA, oil supply from the Middle East is 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

Omissions

• The IEA data specifically refers to 'Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz' (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran and Qatar), not the entire Middle East region. The claim uses the broader term 'the region' which slightly over-generalises the geographic scope.
• The MEP did not specify which war the 'pre-war' comparison refers to. The IEA data compares output to levels before the Iran conflict and subsequent Strait of Hormuz disruption that began affecting Gulf oil production in early 2026.
• The May 2026 IEA report was the most recent available at the time of the session (June 17, 2026), so the claim's use of present tense ('remains') is accurate for that data vintage.

Sources

• PrimaryIEA Oil Market Report - May 2026Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels.
• PrimaryIEA Oil Market Report May 2026 (PDF)Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports...
• SecondaryS&P Global Commodity InsightsOn the supply side, output fell by a further 1.8 million b/d in April, led by a 14.4 million b/d production loss from the Middle East Gulf.