On the Western Balkan route, illegal migration decreased by 90% over the last three years.

Omissions

• The claim does not specify the exact reference periods for the three-year comparison. 'Last three years' from June 2026 could mean June 2023–June 2026, calendar years 2023–2025, or another interpretation.
• The MEP did not cite Frontex as the data source, though Frontex is the primary official source for irregular border crossing detections at EU external borders.
• The 90% figure likely compares current very low 2025–2026 levels to the much higher 2022 peak (approximately 145,600 detections on the Western Balkan route) rather than to mid-2023, which was already a declining year. Cherry-picking the highest baseline amplifies the percentage.
• Frontex detection figures count border crossing events, not unique individuals; the same person may be counted multiple times if they attempt multiple crossings.
• The Western Balkan route's decline is partly a displacement effect: some migratory pressure shifted to other routes.

Sources

• PrimaryFrontexThe Western Balkan route registered around 2,800 detections in the first four months of 2026, a decline of 19% compared to the same period in 2025.
• PrimaryFrontexStrong declines were recorded on the Western African (-59%), Western Balkan (-46%), and Eastern Land Border (-38%) routes in the first 10 months of 2025.
• PrimaryFrontexSharp declines were recorded on the Western African (-60%) and the Western Balkan (-43%) routes in the first 11 months of 2025.