The EU's new approach to managing migration and asylum has helped decrease illegal arrivals.

Omissions

• Frontex attributes part of the decline to factors other than EU policy, e.g. severe winter weather and rough seas contributing to a 60% year-on-year drop in January detections, so the causal link to the EU's migration/asylum policy framework is not demonstrated by the data.
• The decline in irregular crossings began before the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum started applying, so attributing the fall to the 'new approach agreed in recent months and years' risks overstating policy causation.
• Frontex data measure 'irregular border crossings' (detections at external borders), a proxy for, but not identical to, 'illegal arrivals' of persons; some individuals may be counted more than once.

Sources

• PrimaryFrontex (European Border and Coast Guard Agency)Initial consolidated figures from Frontex: irregular border crossings down 26% in 2025, Europe must stay prepared (published 2026-01-15).
• PrimaryFrontex (European Border and Coast Guard Agency)Frontex preliminary data show irregular border crossings into the EU fell 37% in the first seven months of 2026, with around 61000 detections.
• PrimaryFrontex (European Border and Coast Guard Agency)Frontex preliminary data show irregular border crossings into the EU fell by 35% in the first eight months of 2026, with nearly 75000 detections.