The effective return rate for irregular migrants in the European Union is currently close to 30%.
60% confidence
MigrationEuropean Union
Omissions
The 'close to 30%' figure is not stated verbatim by Eurostat in the sources found; it is derived from the Eurostat ratio of returns (33,860) to orders to leave (117,545) in Q4 2025 (≈28.8%).
Independent research (EPRS, cited in European View, 2025) states the effective return rate did not exceed 20% between 2020 and 2023, i.e. the rate has risen only recently — the claim presents a recent peak as the current 'normal' level.
The rise is partly driven by voluntary returns: in 2025, 59.4% of returns to third countries were voluntary and 40.6% forced, which is relevant context for how 'effective' the returns are.
Even at ~30%, roughly 70% of those ordered to leave are not effectively returned, a context the claim does not mention.
The most recent data (Q1 2026: 34,550 returned) is available only through Eurostat's quarterly statistics published after the reference period; the exact quarterly denominator for Q1 2026 was not retrieved.
Sources
PrimaryEurostat — Returns to third countries up by 13% in Q4 2025 (Eurostat news)In the fourth quarter of 2025, 117 545 non-EU citizens were ordered to leave an EU country, and 33 860 people were returned to third countries — implying an effective return rate of approximately 28.8%, consistent with 'close to 30%'.
PrimaryEurostat Statistics Explained — Enforcement of immigration legislation statistics135 460 third-country nationals were returned to a third country following an order to leave the EU in 2025, up 20.9% compared to 2024. In 2025, 59.4% of returns to third countries represented voluntary returns, while 40.6% were forced returns.